THE SYRIAN CIVIL WAR IS SERIOUSLY OUT OF CONTROL; HERE IS AN UPDATE ON HOW THE REBELS AND THE GOVERNMENT ARE FARING:

Sarah,

The Syrian Civil War is seriously out of control; you need an update.  Last week I posted background information about the Syrian Civil War.  If you missed that post, be sure to read it before continuing with this article; it contains necessary information.

The Syrian Civil War is rapidly escalating and the rebels are gaining the advantage.  This post breaks down the current strengths and weaknesses of the government (ruled by Assad) and the rebels.

Scope of the War:

The war has spread to every corner of the country.  All of Syria’s largest cities are battle zones; in Syria’s third largest city (Homs), more than two thirds of the population has fled.  The ranks of the rebels are growing but they are still outnumbered and outgunned.  Most of the battles have played out in the following fashion:

1. The government identifies an area under rebel control

2. The government uses its Russian-made planes, helicopters, and artillery to bomb the area

3. If the rebel’s flee, the government enters the area, loots the area, and kills anyone suspected of aligning with the rebels. (there are countless reports of looting and rape)

4. If the rebels stay, there is either a street battle or a stalemate.  Recently, the government has been reluctant to enter cities and actually fight.  This is because the rebels only possess small arms and house to house fighting negates the government’s advantage in heavy weaponry and aircraft.  Thus, there is currently a stalemate in some of the cities because bombing is not flushing out the rebels and the government will not enter into a battle on small and narrow streets.

The Rebels:

Support: 

Rebel forces are now estimated to have around 50,000 fighters.  The rebel’s main advantage is a growing number of defections from the government.  Many of the government’s officers are Sunni Muslim and are defecting because the war is increasingly seen as a war between the Shia Muslim government and Sunni Muslim rebels.  Each defection adds experience, organization, and sometimes weaponry to the rebel force.

There is a concern however that rebel occupation of the cities is upsetting civilians. (if the rebels enter your neighborhood it will probably be bombed)  This is especially true among Syria’s Christian and Kurdish minorities who fear extremists within the ranks of the Sunni Muslim rebels.(Al Qaeda is reported to be among those fighting Assad)

Additionally, the rebels have not enjoyed strong international support and they lack supplies.  Rebel groups operating near smuggling routes on the Turkish and Lebanese borders are much better supplied than those in the interior of the country.  For the most part, the rebels have armed themselves by buying guns from local black market dealers or government defectors.  This strategy is getting expensive; since the beginning of the war, the price of an AK-47 has quintupled and is now around $1,500. 

Organization:

Thanks to growing ranks and defections by government officers, rebel attacks are growing more sophisticated.  Earlier in the war, most attacks were small hit and run operations.  Now the rebels are holding cities and kidnapping government officials.  Government casualties have spiked dramatically during the month of July.  On July 15^th, the rebels successfully bombed a meeting of Assad’s national security council and killed Assad’s defense minister. 

Although growing ranks are helpful, the diversity within rebel ranks is a challenge.  The rebels have fighters from literally everywhere because foreign fighters have poured into the country to take up the cause.  Further, most domestic rebel units originated locally- this means they are often fighting for the interests of their specific region.  Communication between these disparate factions has been difficult.

The Government:

Support:

The Syrian Army is thought to have around 300,000 soldiers.  The government’s main advantages are their weaponry and international support from their two allies; Russia and Iran.

Russia is supplying Syria with advanced weaponry that the rebels cannot match.  Further, Russia is using its clout to block attempts by the United Nations to impose sanctions or assemble a force for intervention. (China is also blocking these resolutions)  Lastly, Russian banks are circumventing international embargos of Syria and continuing to buy Syria’s oil.  These transactions are one of the Syrian government’s main sources of revenue. 

Although Russia has thus far remained loyal, they may reconsider their position if a rebel victory seems assured.  If the Syrian government resorts to using chemical weapons (which is totally within the realm of possibilities) it may be too difficult for Russia to justify their support.

Iran, Syria’s other ally, is much more reliable.  Iran will likely fight with Assad until the end and has been very vocal in its support.  Iran has a much greater interest in the region and needs to keep Syria within its influence and away from America’s.  Iran gives less material aid than Russia, but is thought to be training government militias and possibly providing manpower.

Syria’s main weaknesses are the high rate of defections within its ranks and a lack of popular support.  Last week, the Prime Minister of the Syria defected and declared that he was “a soldier on the path of righteousness” in support of the rebels.  Supposedly there are jails full of ex-army officers who were imprisoned on suspicion of helping the rebels.  Further, as refugees scatter throughout Syria, they share stories of the government’s brutality and influence more and more Syrians to turn against Assad.  Groups that were initially neutral are now conceding that Assad’s government has got to go.

What’s Happening This Very Second:

As you read this post, battles are raging in Aleppo and Damascus.(both cities have over two million people)  Government planes are firing missiles into apartment buildings, smugglers are crossing land-mined borders, families are desperately trying to flee to neighboring countries, and seventeen year old rebel soldiers are firing antique AK-47’s at Russian-made tanks.

Bottom line: The situation in Syria is rapidly evolving.  Anything could happen in the next couple weeks.  I’ll keep you posted.