EGYPT’S PRESIDENT IS MAKING MOVES:

Sarah,

As you may know, Egypt recently endured a revolution.  Now the country is grappling with the fallout.  Last week, Egypt’s new President dismissed some of the Egyptian Army’s top commanders.  This drama really describes what is going on in Egypt: the army’s power is waning and the Muslim Brotherhood’s power is growing. (The Muslim Brotherhood is the biggest political party in Egypt)

Background:

Egypt’s army has controlled the country since 1952.  After fighting two wars with Israel in 1967 and 1973, Egypt switched allegiances from the USSR to the United States and made peace with Israel.  To get the deal done, the U.S. agreed to pay Egypt billions of dollars every year.

These billions of dollar in U.S. aid kept things stable but not democratic.  The money helped Hosni Mubarak, who came to power in 1981, rule Egypt for 30 years and amass an absurdly large fortune.

Unsurprisingly, this pissed off a lot of Egyptians.  By 2011, nearly everyone was tired of corruption, police brutality, and not being able to vote.  The people went to the streets and after a year of protest and disorder Mubarak was removed.

The New Political Situation:

Now that Mubarak is gone, a rivalry exists with the Egyptian Army and the Muslim Brotherhood.

The Muslim Brotherhood is an Islamist political party.(this basically means they want to incorporate more tenants of Islam into the government)  They have legitimacy in Egypt because they have been pushing back against the army for decades.  They also provide a safety net for much of Egypt’s poor.  In recent elections, the Muslim Brotherhood won a majority of the seats in Parliament.  Further, the new president, Mohamed Morsi, is a member of the Muslim Brotherhood.

Even though the Muslim Brotherhood seems to be expanding its influence, the Egyptian Army is still very powerful.  After Mubarak left, the military remained in control by claiming to preserve order until elections took place.  The army controls the streets and most of the country’s judges support the army because they were appointed by Mubarak.  Recently, a judge dismissed Egypt’s newly elected parliament for “constitutional violations”.  This served as a wakeup call that the army still runs the show.

Morsi’s Big Moves:

Morsi is striking back.  He made three big moves this week:

First, he dismissed the Egypt’s top general.  Mohamed Tantawi is now retired after leading the armed forces for over 20 years.  The military has not objected. 

How he was able to do this is unclear.  Some speculate that younger generals within the army helped to organize the transition.  Either way, it is a reflection of Morsi’s growing power

Second he appointed a reformist judge named Mahmoud Mekki to be his Vice President.  Earlier I mentioned that most judges in Egypt side with the military.  Not this one.  He founded an independent judge movement and has battled the army politically.

Third, Morsi declared a new constitutional declaration granting the President broader power.  This move is an attempt to deny the army any role in policy making.  The significance or legality of this move is still unclear.

Do These Moves Change Anything?

If you believe the Egyptian Media, the moves definitely change things.  This week, headlines in Egypt declared that the Muslim Brotherhood is now firmly in control of Egypt.  Myself, I am unsure.  We will have to wait and see how the army responds.

Bottom line: This drama is definitely not over; expect something exciting in the coming weeks.