SUICIDE BOMBINGS TARGET NEWLY ELECTED PRESIDENT OF SOMALIA:

Sarah,

Last month I gave you an overview of why Somalia is struggling so much.  Read it if you haven’t.

Recent news exemplifies Somalia’s continuing strife:

Two days ago Somalia elected Hassan Sheik Mohamud to be their new President.  However, the government that elected him only controls part of the country and relies heavily on foreign aid.  Much of the country is still under the control of the Shabab, an Islamist Militia.  Right now, the African Union (a collection of African countries) has peacekeeping troops positioned in the south of the country to protect the Somali capital against attacks from the Islamists.

Yesterday, the Shabab unleashed suicide bombers on the hotel where Mohamud was staying.  He survived, but the attack provided a clear reminder that the Somali government does not control all of Somalia and the Shabab can orchestrate attacks anywhere in the country.

The Shabab claimed responsibility for the attack on Twitter.  Currently, they have 15,500 followers.

 

Bottom line: I'm really curious about the Twitter situation in Somalia because I'm assuming computers are rare.  Do people just go to internet cafes to check on the status of the extremist Islamist militia that controls half the country?

CHINESE GANGS IN AFRICA:

Sarah,

I write a lot about China, I write a lot about Africa, and I write a lot about crime.  So I definitely can’t pass up a story about Chinese gangsters in Africa.  Last week, 37 people were extradited from Angola to China to face charges of kidnapping, armed robbery, human trafficking, and extortion.  Let’s start the story with Angola:

 

Angola:

Angola lies on the Atlantic Coast in Southern Africa.  Portugal arrived in Angola as early as 1500 because Angola was on the way to India and the Portuguese were some of the first explorers.  You might remember from 4^th grade that Bartolomeu Dias, a Portuguese explorer, was the first to round the Cape of Africa.

Portugal ruled Angola for about 500 years and engaged in the slave trade enthusiastically.  Portugal spent most of this time near the coast, but around 1900 they attempted to consolidate their hold on the whole country.  In 1961, a war for independence broke out and lasted until 1974.  Immediately after Portugal left, a far more brutal internal civil war erupted and lasted until 2002.  So basically, the country was at war from the time of JFK’s presidency all the way to the attacks on 9/11.

Since the end of the civil war, Angola’s economy has grown incredibly fast.  This is because the country has an extraordinary amount of oil, diamonds, copper, and gold.  Almost all of Angola’s economic growth stems for the export of these commodities.

Unfortunately, the wealth from these exports has remained in the hands the elite.  A handful of powerful government officials and insiders have managed to enrich themselves at the expense of the rest of the population.  As a result, Angola suffers from staggering social inequality.  The differences between the cities and the countryside are arguably more dramatic than anywhere else in the world.  This rural poverty is compounded by the fact that the countryside is still littered with landmines from 40 years of war.

China:

When peace came, the Chinese entered and brokered deals with Angola’s corrupt government.  Since 2002, China has loaned Angola billions of dollars and managed to become Angola’s main trading partner.  As a result, most of Angola’s oil, gold, and copper end up in China. 

Because of this trade, many Chinese have migrated to the country and thousands of Chinese citizens currently live there.  However, not all of these migrants are successful Chinese businessmen.  Many are poorer, uneducated Chinese citizens that have roots in Chinese gang culture.

These gangsters thrive in Africa because of a general lack of security and political instability.  It’s much easier to kidnap and ransom a wealthy businessman in Angola than in Beijing.  Accordingly, many businessmen operating in Angola are forced to hire bodyguards and buy bullet proof cars.  Some have even abandoned their businesses.  Further, the gangsters allegedly operate human trafficking schemes in which young women are promised jobs in Africa but are immediately sold into prostitution once they arrive.

Now China is taking steps to fight back and defend its image.  It sent a special police force to Angola to target 12 different gangs and rescue victims.  As a result of their efforts, 14 victims were freed and 37 Chinese gangsters are now back in China and awaiting trial.

Bottom line: Exporting crime to Africa?  That seems really messed up.  Also, I bet the officers in that special Chinese police force were total bad asses.  This story would make a great action movie.

ETHIOPIA’S LONGTIME LEADER DIES:

Sarah,

Last week, Meles Zenawi, who has ruled Ethiopia since 1991, passed away.  Here are four interesting details about him:

 

1. He Was a Close Ally of the United States:

Ethiopia is critically important to United States foreign policy because it is located in the least stable part of Africa.  It borders Somalia, Sudan, and South Sudan.  Yemen is just across the Red Sea.  All four of these countries are fighting wars in some capacity and all four are threatened by Islamic groups that the United States considers terrorists.

Accordingly, the United States has supported Zenawi since the beginning.  He came to power because he was as a U.S. supported rebel that defeated a Soviet supported communist regime.  After the fall of the Soviet Union, the United States changed its focus to fighting Islamic extremism.  Ethiopia, which is a majority Christian country, has proven to be a helpful ally.  Under Zenawi’s rule, Ethiopia invaded Somalia several times over the past decade with the purpose of dislodging Islamists from power.  Zenawi also allowed the U.S. to base its drones (robot fighter planes) in Ethiopia and to launch attacks on targets in Yemen and Somalia from Ethiopian territory.  In return, the United States gives Ethiopia billions of dollars in aid.

2.  He Was Arguably a Dictator:

When a ruler opposes the United States, he is usually called a dictator.  When a ruler supports the United States, he is called “a charismatic strongman”. (The LA Times called him a strongman)

By many definitions, Zenawi was a dictator.  It’s pretty hard to rule for 21 straight years without a degree of repression.  Zenawi killed political opponents and jailed reporters.  In a 2005 election, 195 political protesters were killed.  When the results of the election showed progress for the opposition, over 30,000 people were jailed. 

In Zenawi’s defense, he remained popular throughout his rule and may have been the legitimate winner in each presidential race.  However, this is hard to say definitively when opposition figures were jailed and killed.

3.  Ethiopia’s Economy Grew Quickly Under Zenawi’s Rule:

Dictator or not, Zenawi certainly improved Ethiopia’s economy.  Although the country remains desperately poor, Ethiopia’s economy grew at about 10% for most of the last decade. (The U.S. is currently struggling to grow above 2%.  China is growing at 7.5%) 

Much of this growth is due the Chinese and Indian investment in Ethiopia’s agriculture.  Ethiopia’s main exports of corn and coffee have grown dramatically.

4.  Zenawi Fought a Brutal War With Neighboring Eritrea:

This war will probably top the list of wars you have never heard of.  Between 1998 and 2000, these two impoverished countries fought an incredibly expensive war over a border dispute.  As many as 100,000 people were killed and hundreds of millions of dollars were spent.  The war resulted in very little change; the border moved only slightly.

Bottom line: Who won’t the United States give a couple billion dollars too?

EGYPT’S PRESIDENT IS MAKING MOVES:

Sarah,

As you may know, Egypt recently endured a revolution.  Now the country is grappling with the fallout.  Last week, Egypt’s new President dismissed some of the Egyptian Army’s top commanders.  This drama really describes what is going on in Egypt: the army’s power is waning and the Muslim Brotherhood’s power is growing. (The Muslim Brotherhood is the biggest political party in Egypt)

Background:

Egypt’s army has controlled the country since 1952.  After fighting two wars with Israel in 1967 and 1973, Egypt switched allegiances from the USSR to the United States and made peace with Israel.  To get the deal done, the U.S. agreed to pay Egypt billions of dollars every year.

These billions of dollar in U.S. aid kept things stable but not democratic.  The money helped Hosni Mubarak, who came to power in 1981, rule Egypt for 30 years and amass an absurdly large fortune.

Unsurprisingly, this pissed off a lot of Egyptians.  By 2011, nearly everyone was tired of corruption, police brutality, and not being able to vote.  The people went to the streets and after a year of protest and disorder Mubarak was removed.

The New Political Situation:

Now that Mubarak is gone, a rivalry exists with the Egyptian Army and the Muslim Brotherhood.

The Muslim Brotherhood is an Islamist political party.(this basically means they want to incorporate more tenants of Islam into the government)  They have legitimacy in Egypt because they have been pushing back against the army for decades.  They also provide a safety net for much of Egypt’s poor.  In recent elections, the Muslim Brotherhood won a majority of the seats in Parliament.  Further, the new president, Mohamed Morsi, is a member of the Muslim Brotherhood.

Even though the Muslim Brotherhood seems to be expanding its influence, the Egyptian Army is still very powerful.  After Mubarak left, the military remained in control by claiming to preserve order until elections took place.  The army controls the streets and most of the country’s judges support the army because they were appointed by Mubarak.  Recently, a judge dismissed Egypt’s newly elected parliament for “constitutional violations”.  This served as a wakeup call that the army still runs the show.

Morsi’s Big Moves:

Morsi is striking back.  He made three big moves this week:

First, he dismissed the Egypt’s top general.  Mohamed Tantawi is now retired after leading the armed forces for over 20 years.  The military has not objected. 

How he was able to do this is unclear.  Some speculate that younger generals within the army helped to organize the transition.  Either way, it is a reflection of Morsi’s growing power

Second he appointed a reformist judge named Mahmoud Mekki to be his Vice President.  Earlier I mentioned that most judges in Egypt side with the military.  Not this one.  He founded an independent judge movement and has battled the army politically.

Third, Morsi declared a new constitutional declaration granting the President broader power.  This move is an attempt to deny the army any role in policy making.  The significance or legality of this move is still unclear.

Do These Moves Change Anything?

If you believe the Egyptian Media, the moves definitely change things.  This week, headlines in Egypt declared that the Muslim Brotherhood is now firmly in control of Egypt.  Myself, I am unsure.  We will have to wait and see how the army responds.

Bottom line: This drama is definitely not over; expect something exciting in the coming weeks.

THE PRICE OF CORN EXEMPLIFIES THE INTERCONNECTEDNESS OF THE WORLD

Sarah,

Food prices are really interesting to me.  This year in South Africa, the price of corn has risen 40%.  This is largely the result of a drought and heat wave in the United States which destroyed a large amount of this summer’s corn harvest.  The smaller supply has led to higher prices.  For a poor South African, this price increase is devastating.

Now the South Africans are looking to Brazil.  Brazil is also a major producer of corn and it has a different growing season because it is in the southern hemisphere.  Thus, Brazil’s crop will be harvested this winter.  If Brazil’s corn crop is healthy, prices will go back down.  If the harvest is weak, prices will stay high.

Bottom line- millions of poor people in Africa are dramatically affected by weather in completely different parts of the world.  That is crazy to me.

LAST YEAR, SOUTH SUDAN BECAME THE WOLRD’S NEWEST COUNTRY; HERE ARE THE BASIC DETAILS:

Sarah,

On July 9^th, 2011, after decades of civil war, South Sudan seceded from Sudan to become the world’s newest country.  It’s off to a rocky start.  Here are the details:

A Very Quick History:

Geography:

First, look at the map.  Note that the Blue Nile and the White Nile converge to form the Nile at Khartoum, the capital of Sudan.  This helps explain why Northern Sudan has enjoyed a historical advantage over Southern Sudan: it can access both tributaries and is closer to Egypt and the Mediterranean.

North Sudan is mostly desert, South Sudan is mostly grassland.  Both areas have oil.

Pre-Historic Times:

Humans originated in Africa around 100,000 B.C.  Anthropologists surmise that humans left Africa by slowly marching up the Nile; after a group consumed all the resources on a particular stretch of the river, they would continue north.

Ancient Times:

Egypt, just north of Sudan, emerged as one of the world's first civilizations around 6,000 B.C.  Later, the Kingdom of Kush emerged at the confluence of the Blue Nile and the White Nile.(present day Khartoum)  As a general rule, Egypt was more powerful than the Kingdom of Kush and the Kingdom of Kush was more powerful than tribes to the South.

Islam spreads to the North but not the South:

Starting around 650 A.D. Arab Muslims exploded out of Arabian Peninsula and started conquering everything in sight.  It did not take long before Northern Sudan fell under their sphere of influence.  Over the next couple hundred years, Northern Sudan was thoroughly Arabicized and converted to Islam, but South Sudan remained largely free of Arabic influence. 

Nilotic Tribes Migrate to South Sudan:

Starting around 900 A.D., Nilotic tribes migrated into South Sudan.  Nilotic people have dark skin, and tall, slender, bodies.  As a point of reference, most of the Kenyan runners that dominate long distance running are Nilotic.  The Maasai people are also Nilotic.

Thus, as early as 1,000 A.D., South Sudan was populated by Nilotic tribes and North Sudan was populated by a heavily Arabicized Muslim population.   

The British Isolate Then Reunite the North and the South:

The tribes of South Sudan lived in relative isolation until the late 1880’s when the British arrived and colonized Sudan.  The British did three things that pretty much ensured a future conflict between north and south:

1. North and South Sudan were governed by separate British administrations.  The British restricted north-south migration to prevent disease from spreading north and Islamic influence from spreading south.

2. They sent missionaries to convert the south to Christianity.  This led to further cultural divergence.  Currently, South Sudan practices a mix of indigenous religion and Christianity.

3.  In 1946, before leaving the area, the British merged South Sudan and North Sudan into a single entity and left officials from the North in control of the whole region. 

The First Really Long Civil War:

In 1953, Sudan gained independence.  South Sudan realized it would be dominated by the Northern government and immediately rebelled.  The war continued for twenty years until a cease fire was brokered in 1973.  The cease fire formed the self-governing Southern Sudan Autonomous Region. (almost independent but not quite)

The Second Really Long Civil War:

In 1983, Sudan violated the peace agreement and attempted to revoke the South’s autonomy.  By this date, vast quantities of oil had been discovered in the South and the government in Khartoum went ahead with a full scale invasion.

The war was beyond devastating.  Fighting and famine claimed over two million lives and reports of genocide and other atrocities were common.

Finally, in 2005, a peace agreement was reached with the help of the United Nations.  It provided that after a 6 year period, the people of South Sudan could vote to become independent.  In 2011 the vote was held and 98 percent of the population voted to secede and form the country of South Sudan.

Current Status of South Sudan:

To say South Sudan is facing some challenges would be an understatement.  Here are some problems facing the new country:

Economic Problems:

The economy of South Sudan is still in ruins; most of its infrastructure is destroyed and most people are subsistence farmers.  98 percent of the country’s revenue comes from oil.  Further, because South Sudan is landlocked, it is forced to export its oil through Sudan.  Accusations that Sudan steals its oil as it is being transported are commonplace.

In case you were wondering, the Chinese operate the majority oil facilities in the country.

Corrupt Politicians:

South Sudan is a democracy but its politics are dominated by the rebel groups that fought for its independence.  The most recent election was marred by intimidation and candidates linked with the rebels won the vast majority of seats in government.

The unity that was spurred by the common cause of independence is rapidly dissipating.

Almost all the country’s revenue goes to the army.

Corruption is rampant.  It is estimated that immediately after independence, more than four billion dollars in oil revenue was immediately embezzled by government officials.  This is an absolutely ridiculous number given the small size of Southern Sudan's economy.  It would be like officials in America embezzling a trillion dollars.

Refugees:

As many as one million refugees are present within the country.

The Threat of War:

Just over the border, Sudan is busy crushing local opposition.  Squabbles over the border and oil rights are common and could easily plunge the country back into war.

NOTE: This conflict is different from the one in Darfur.  Darfur is its own separate catastrophe.  A report on Darfur is forthcoming.

Bottom line: It's great South Sudan is independent but it has a very long road to stability.  Let’s hope things get better.


Sources: http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/sudanthebreakup/2011/06/201162311444468410.html

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/spotlight/southsudanindependence/2011/06/2011630102213823618.html, wikipedia, http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/south-sudan/index.html

BRAZIL IS MOVING INTO AFRICA

Sarah,

There is a new trend of developing countries investing in Africa.  Brazil is growing fast, (it just surpassed Britain to become the sixth largest economy) and is the latest country to join the party.  This intrigues me because Brazil and Africa have an interesting history.  Let’s talk about it.

HISTORY WITH AFRICA:

The Slave Trade:

Brazil was a Portuguese colony.  The Portuguese were the original slave traders, establishing an slave trading agreement with an African ruler as early as 1494.(about the time of Columbus' journey)  By the 1540’s, Portugal had established sugar plantations in its new colony of Brazil and began importing slave labor to work the fields.  Between 1519 and 1867, more slaves found their way to Brazil than any other location in the Americas. (38% went to Brazil while 7% went to North America)  Brazil was also the last country to stop importing slaves, continuing the practice until 1831.  Note that this means slaves were imported from Africa to Brazil for over 300 years.

Rio: Capital of the Portuguese Empire:

In the early 1800’s Napoleon conquered Portugal and the Portuguese Royal Court fled to Brazil.  Thus for a brief spell in the beginning of the 1800’s, the Portuguese Empire and its African holdings were administered by officials in Rio de Janeiro.

Common Language:

As a result of Portuguese imperialism, the African countries of Angola, Mozambique, Guinea- Bissau, Cape Verde, and Sao Tome and Principe speak Portuguese.

INVESTMENT TODAY:

In the last ten years, Brazil’s focus has turned back towards Africa.  Unlike China and America, it does not need oil and unlike Middle Eastern countries it does not need food.  As a result, Brazil is more focused on expanding opportunities for itself and its companies as opposed to extracting resources taking them back home.

So what exactly does it mean to expand opportunities?  What exactly does Brazil do in Africa?  First, it lends money.  The Brazil is lending $150 million to Kenya to build roads in Kenya’s capital.  Second, Brazil builds things.  In Mozambique, Brazil is building a plant that manufactures drugs that fight AIDS.  Third, it expands its diplomatic presence; Brazil has built 36 African embassies in the last 10 years.  Fourth, it makes connections.  Flights have begun from Brazil’s largest city Sao Paulo, to Ethiopia and Brazil has recently finished laying a fiber optic cable that connects Brazil to West Africa.

Bottom Line: Brazil is doing work.

WHY IS SOMALIA SO MESSED UP?

Sarah,

As you may have heard, Somalia is the most screwed country on Earth.  It has not had a functioning government since 1991.  Violence and poverty are the norm.  Why is this?

A Very Quick History:

Somalia is a country in the east of Africa.  It borders the Indian Ocean and the Red Sea and lies along the most direct trade route between India and Europe.  This trade route has been important for a really long time. From antiquity through the middle ages, Somali cities thrived and several strong Somali empires flourished.

Millenniums of relative independence ended in 1920.  Somalia was conquered by Britain and then by Italy and then by Britain again.  Britain decided to leave after World War II.  On their way out, Britain ceded a large swath of Somali territory to neighboring Ethiopia.(note that Ethiopia is Christian and Somalia is Muslim) 

In 1960, the Somali Republic was founded.  In 1969, the Somali army seized power in a bloodless coup and installed Mohamed Siad Barre as Somalia’s leader.  Barre quickly dissolved parliament and the Supreme Court and established a communist government with a greater emphasis on Islam.

In the 1970’s Barre’s government declared war on Ethiopia.  When the Soviets intervened on behalf of Ethiopia, the Somali’s turned to the Americans.  The foreign support of both superpowers resulted in a massive build-up of arms within the country. 

Somalia ended up losing the war and Barre became increasingly totalitarian.  By the 80’s his government was more or less a military dictatorship.

As the Cold War drew to end, international support for Barre’s government dried up and resistance groups sprang up around the country.  When Barre’s government fell, these new clan based militias began fighting amongst themselves.  A drought and famine intensified this conflict and clans began warring over food and water.  When the UN tried to intervene, the militias turned against the UN peacekeepers.

By the end of the civil war, the central government ceased to exist.  Somali’s retreated to more localized forms government, relying on Islamic law to settle disputes.  As a result, Islamists gained power within the country and began to clash with the fledgling Transitional National Government.

Currently, a provisional government in the capital is fighting the Islamists who control the majority of the country.

Droughts:

In addition to this instability, Somalia is extremely susceptible to drought.  It has not one, but two dry seasons, and rainfall is irregular.  As recently as 2011, a severe drought was caused by a 25% drop in rainfall.  Every new drought brings increased instability.

Piracy:

Piracy has been around forever.  In fact, the ancient Romans are said to have sent navies to the area to stop piracy as early as 150 A.D.  Today, the lack of central government has allowed piracy to continue unabated.  This severely hampers any chance on investment in region.

Bottom Line: Somalia is a land of little resources, warring clans, aggressive Islamist movements, and pirates.  It is unfortunate because Somalia is in in a strategic trading position that once allowed the country to thrive.  However, for the time being, there is little reason to expect improvement.

THERE IS AN ANCIENT CITY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE SAHARA DESERT THAT IS BEING DESTROYED FOR NO GOOD REASON

Sarah,

This story needs some background, but it's pretty damn interesting.  Basically, rebels in the country of Mali have conquered a swath of Sahara desert and are destroying the incredibly unique city of Timbuktu.  It is infuriating.

Background:

Mali is an African country situated on the Southern Edge of the Sahara Desert. The Northern half of the country has a desert climate and is populated by the Taureg people. These people descended from the Berbers of North Africa and Egypt. (Think nomads on camels that wear awesome turbans).

The Southern half of the country is wetter, with some areas classified as tropical. This part of the country is dominated by tribes of sub-Saharan ethnicity.(more African than Middle Eastern) More than 90 percent of the country’s population lives in the South.

Map of Mali

Last March, the army (the regular army, not the rebels) overthrew the democratically elected government based in the South.  At about the same time, defeated rebels from Libya (a country directly north of Mali that recently went through its own revolution) poured in the country from the North.

The resulting confusion allowed the Taureg people of Northern Mali to declare independence from Southern Mali.  Although initially successful, the revolution was soon hijacked by an extreme Islamist group named Ansar Dine.  This group has links to Al-Qaeda and is enforcing Sharia (Islamic) law.  More specifically they are destroying the city of Timbuktu.

Timbuktu:

Timbuktu was founded around 1100 A.D. (at this time Europe was still in the “dark ages”).  The city flourished because it was located in the Sahara desert but was still connected to the South by a river. (the Niger River flows north into the Sahara before curving back South into Southern Mali)  If someone managed to make it across the Sahara, they’d reach Timbuktu first.  Accordingly, it was a connecting point between the Arabs of North Africa and African tribes south of the Sahara.

By 1300, the city had reached a golden age and the king of Mali constructed a Royal Palace, Islamic learning centers, mosques and mausoleums for Sufi Muslim saints. (Sufism is a mystical version of Islam)  Keep in mind this is all going on in the middle of desert in the year 1350. 

Now the Ansar Dine is tearing down every tomb and mausoleum in the city, some of which are over 700 years old. 

Why?  Because, although they are Muslim tombs, they are Sufi Muslim tombs.  The Ansar Dine do not recognize Sufism as legitimate and consider the tombs to be idolatry. 

The Dinjguereber Mosque

Unfortunately, little is being done to stop the Ansar Dine.  The Malian army has not taken action and efforts to create an international force have stalled.  Most of the region's Christians have fled.  For now, the Ansar Dine are able to do what they want.

Bottom line: Avoid being in a power vaccuum in Africa.  That's were the worst stuff usually happens.