DEATH OF A DIPLOMAT RAISES CONCERNS:

Sarah,

A United States diplomat was killed in Libya after protesters attacked and set fire to the U.S. Embassy.  Our Embassy in Egypt was also attacked.  The attacks raise several more general concerns:

1.  The precipitating event was a video posted on YouTube that insults Islam.  Supposedly the video was posted by people in America and depicts Muhammad and his followers as “child lovers” and questions whether he loves women.  This is concerning because anyone can post videos on YouTube at any time.  Does this mean that anyone in the world can start an anti-American riot by simply posting a YouTube video attacking Islam and claiming to be an American?

2.  Florida preacher Terry Jones promoted the video.  This preacher is famous for publicly burning Korans in 2011, an event that set off riots in Afghanistan.  Now it seems he is able to effectuate riots in Egypt and Libya too.  This guy does not seem to be slowing down.

3.  Both Egypt and Libya recently underwent revolutions and these protests serve as evidence that both countries are still very volatile.

4.  Protesters in Egypt accuse Coptic Christians in America with creating the video.  Coptic Christians follow a branch of Christianity based in Alexandria, Egypt.  Coptic Christians amount to 10% of Egypt’s population.  In recent years, tensions between Muslims and Coptic Christians have risen.  Accusations that Coptic Christians created the video highlights this troubling trend.

BAHRAIN PUTS THE UNITED STATES IN AN AWKWARD POSITION:

Sarah,

Sometimes the United States has to choose between promoting human rights and promoting its geopolitical interests.  Their relationship with Bahrain provides an excellent example of this quandary.

Geopolitical Interests:

Bahrain is a small country in the Persian Gulf.  It has a ton of oil and it allows the United States to base an entire naval fleet in its territory.  This fleet (the 5^th fleet) is essential to United States’ interests because it is our main fleet in the Middle East.  If we fought a war with Iran, Bahrain’s support would be absolutely critical.

Human Rights Interests:

One of the reasons the Bahrain supports us against Iran is that Bahrain is ruled by a Sunni Islam Monarchy.  The monarchy does not trust the Shia Islam government of Iran.

Unfortunately, they also distrust their own Shia Islam minority.

When the Arab spring started (remember the rebellions Egypt, Libya, Tunisia) the Shia minority agitated for more political rights.  Protests were crushed and activists were jailed.  Currently, international observers report that Bahrain uses its court system to prosecute political enemies and that Bahrain’s police use unacceptable amounts of force.  Being that the country is officially a monarchy (ruled by a king), democratic institutions are lacking.  The United States lightly condemned the action but hasn’t really done anything about it.  Bahrain promised reforms but hasn’t made any.

The situation is best summed up by Michael Posner, our Assistant Secretary of State.  The LA Times quoted him as saying:

“I think our best role is to be a quiet supportive voice on the outside.”

In other words- please be better, but if you don’t get better, no worries.

DAMASCUS, THE CAPITAL OF SYRIA, IS ABSURDLY OLD

Sarah,
  
In my last post, I gave a short summary of the war in Syria.  Right now, battles are raging on the streets of Damascus, Syria's capital.  I have to tell you some very quick details about this city.

Damascus is 8,000 years old.  It is considered one of the oldest continuously inhabited cities in the world.  This means that the very first group of humans that gave up on following big herds of animals for a living picked Damascus as the spot to settle down and try to grow plants to eat.  When the “ancient” Romans conquered the city it was already 6000 years old.

Further, this is about the 900th time the city has been destroyed by fighting.   The city has been conquered by Alexander the Great, the Romans, the Crusaders, the Mongols, the Ottomans, and the British.  Also, you could argue that conflict with Israel is nothing new.  In 900 B.C. the city of Damascus won a major battle that stopped the original Israelites from expanding.

Bottom Line: America is really young.  Damascus is about 50 times older than San Francsico.

THERE IS A CIVIL WAR RAGING IN SYRIA; YOU NEED TO AT LEAST KNOW THE BASICS

Sarah,

There is a civil war raging in Syria right now.  It's really complicated, but here is a very basic breakdown of why people are killing each other.  I also added where America stands in all of this.

Breakdown:

Syria is the Muslim country that lies directly north of Israel.(Israel conquered some land from them in 1967)  Here is the basic situation.  President Assad (more or less a dictator) is an Alawite.  Alawites are Shia Muslims and make up about 10% of the Syrian population. The majority of the population is Sunni Muslim.  During the cold war, Russia backed the Assad family and Syria acted as a counterweight to American interests in Israel.  Iran also supports the Assad family because Iran is the main Shia Muslim country and they want control to stay in the hands of Shia Muslims.  Now there is revolution against Assad which started as a pro-democracy movement but is increasingly looking like the 75% Sunni population rebelling against the minority Shia Muslims who control the country.  Other Sunni Muslim nations (Turkey and Saudi Arabia) are cautiously aligning themselves with the rebels, but thus far there has been no overt intervention.

This puts the United States in an awkward position.  Its first impulse might be to support the rebels because they are “pro democracy” and we are enemies with Russia and Iran.  However, it is much more complicated than that.  First, Al Qaeda is a Sunni sect which in addition to hating Israel and America also hates Shia Muslims.  Thus, Al Qaeda is now on the side of the Sunni rebels and Al-Qaeda fighters are pouring into the country.  It may be tough for America to justify aligning with Al Qaeda in any capacity.  Further, beyond Al-Qaeda, there are many other rebel groups that remain unidentified.  It is possible that some of them are the same groups that supply arms to Palestinian militants.  Third, the same Sunni- Shia split that is present in Syria is also present in Iraq and Lebanon, so there is a risk the conflict can spread even deeper.  Iraq is barely controlling violence between Sunni and Shia populations as it is and this violence may get even more out of hand.

Beyond practical concerns, the US also faces some diplomatic hurdles to intervention.  For the United Nations to act, the Security Council (Russia, China, Britain, France, and America) have to agree to use force.  Russia is vetoing intervention because of its alliance with Syria and China usually vetoes intervention because it doesn't want any precedent for other countries intervening in its affairs.  Democrats find this to be a legitimate barrier to intervention and think that we shouldn't intervene anyway.  Republicans think that waiting for UN support is stupid and the United States should do what they need to.  It is unclear if Republicans actually want to intervene but they definitely want everyone to know that we don't need to UN.

Oh and if you are wondering, the main difference between Shia and Sunni Muslims is that around 700 AD there was a split between Muslims as to who was the rightful successor of Muhammad (the prophet).  Most everything else between the two sects is the same.

Bottom line: This conflict is potentially explosive.