REBEL HELD TOWNS OF SYRIA FORM NEW GOVERNMENTS:

Sarah,

As you now know, there is a revolution taking place in Syria.(see the details and background of the conflict)  One consequence of a revolution is that it can create a power vacuum.  The war has left parts of Syria with no local government, no courts, and no police.

In rebel held towns, local leaders are starting to build new governments and restart basic civic functions.

First, the rebels are organizing courts.  Courts are extremely necessary because the chaos of the war and influx of weapons has led to higher crime.  Further, suspected government informants need to be tried.

For now, most of courts are religious and run by local religious officials.  Procedure is lacking and there are widespread reports of executions.  Makeshift jails have sprung up around the country and treatment of detainees is a major concern.

Second, the towns are organizing city councils.  These councils handle garbage pick-up as well as the enormous task of burying the dead in the middle of a warzone.  It’s a dirty job and someone absolutely has to do it.

Hopefully, if these governments grow stronger, they will reduce the amount of chaos in a post-Assad Syria.

Source: LA Times, “tentative steps towards a new Syria” 8/19/12

THE SYRIAN CIVIL WAR IS SERIOUSLY OUT OF CONTROL; HERE IS AN UPDATE ON HOW THE REBELS AND THE GOVERNMENT ARE FARING:

Sarah,

The Syrian Civil War is seriously out of control; you need an update.  Last week I posted background information about the Syrian Civil War.  If you missed that post, be sure to read it before continuing with this article; it contains necessary information.

The Syrian Civil War is rapidly escalating and the rebels are gaining the advantage.  This post breaks down the current strengths and weaknesses of the government (ruled by Assad) and the rebels.

Scope of the War:

The war has spread to every corner of the country.  All of Syria’s largest cities are battle zones; in Syria’s third largest city (Homs), more than two thirds of the population has fled.  The ranks of the rebels are growing but they are still outnumbered and outgunned.  Most of the battles have played out in the following fashion:

1. The government identifies an area under rebel control

2. The government uses its Russian-made planes, helicopters, and artillery to bomb the area

3. If the rebel’s flee, the government enters the area, loots the area, and kills anyone suspected of aligning with the rebels. (there are countless reports of looting and rape)

4. If the rebels stay, there is either a street battle or a stalemate.  Recently, the government has been reluctant to enter cities and actually fight.  This is because the rebels only possess small arms and house to house fighting negates the government’s advantage in heavy weaponry and aircraft.  Thus, there is currently a stalemate in some of the cities because bombing is not flushing out the rebels and the government will not enter into a battle on small and narrow streets.

The Rebels:

Support: 

Rebel forces are now estimated to have around 50,000 fighters.  The rebel’s main advantage is a growing number of defections from the government.  Many of the government’s officers are Sunni Muslim and are defecting because the war is increasingly seen as a war between the Shia Muslim government and Sunni Muslim rebels.  Each defection adds experience, organization, and sometimes weaponry to the rebel force.

There is a concern however that rebel occupation of the cities is upsetting civilians. (if the rebels enter your neighborhood it will probably be bombed)  This is especially true among Syria’s Christian and Kurdish minorities who fear extremists within the ranks of the Sunni Muslim rebels.(Al Qaeda is reported to be among those fighting Assad)

Additionally, the rebels have not enjoyed strong international support and they lack supplies.  Rebel groups operating near smuggling routes on the Turkish and Lebanese borders are much better supplied than those in the interior of the country.  For the most part, the rebels have armed themselves by buying guns from local black market dealers or government defectors.  This strategy is getting expensive; since the beginning of the war, the price of an AK-47 has quintupled and is now around $1,500. 

Organization:

Thanks to growing ranks and defections by government officers, rebel attacks are growing more sophisticated.  Earlier in the war, most attacks were small hit and run operations.  Now the rebels are holding cities and kidnapping government officials.  Government casualties have spiked dramatically during the month of July.  On July 15^th, the rebels successfully bombed a meeting of Assad’s national security council and killed Assad’s defense minister. 

Although growing ranks are helpful, the diversity within rebel ranks is a challenge.  The rebels have fighters from literally everywhere because foreign fighters have poured into the country to take up the cause.  Further, most domestic rebel units originated locally- this means they are often fighting for the interests of their specific region.  Communication between these disparate factions has been difficult.

The Government:

Support:

The Syrian Army is thought to have around 300,000 soldiers.  The government’s main advantages are their weaponry and international support from their two allies; Russia and Iran.

Russia is supplying Syria with advanced weaponry that the rebels cannot match.  Further, Russia is using its clout to block attempts by the United Nations to impose sanctions or assemble a force for intervention. (China is also blocking these resolutions)  Lastly, Russian banks are circumventing international embargos of Syria and continuing to buy Syria’s oil.  These transactions are one of the Syrian government’s main sources of revenue. 

Although Russia has thus far remained loyal, they may reconsider their position if a rebel victory seems assured.  If the Syrian government resorts to using chemical weapons (which is totally within the realm of possibilities) it may be too difficult for Russia to justify their support.

Iran, Syria’s other ally, is much more reliable.  Iran will likely fight with Assad until the end and has been very vocal in its support.  Iran has a much greater interest in the region and needs to keep Syria within its influence and away from America’s.  Iran gives less material aid than Russia, but is thought to be training government militias and possibly providing manpower.

Syria’s main weaknesses are the high rate of defections within its ranks and a lack of popular support.  Last week, the Prime Minister of the Syria defected and declared that he was “a soldier on the path of righteousness” in support of the rebels.  Supposedly there are jails full of ex-army officers who were imprisoned on suspicion of helping the rebels.  Further, as refugees scatter throughout Syria, they share stories of the government’s brutality and influence more and more Syrians to turn against Assad.  Groups that were initially neutral are now conceding that Assad’s government has got to go.

What’s Happening This Very Second:

As you read this post, battles are raging in Aleppo and Damascus.(both cities have over two million people)  Government planes are firing missiles into apartment buildings, smugglers are crossing land-mined borders, families are desperately trying to flee to neighboring countries, and seventeen year old rebel soldiers are firing antique AK-47’s at Russian-made tanks.

Bottom line: The situation in Syria is rapidly evolving.  Anything could happen in the next couple weeks.  I’ll keep you posted.

DAMASCUS, THE CAPITAL OF SYRIA, IS ABSURDLY OLD

Sarah,
  
In my last post, I gave a short summary of the war in Syria.  Right now, battles are raging on the streets of Damascus, Syria's capital.  I have to tell you some very quick details about this city.

Damascus is 8,000 years old.  It is considered one of the oldest continuously inhabited cities in the world.  This means that the very first group of humans that gave up on following big herds of animals for a living picked Damascus as the spot to settle down and try to grow plants to eat.  When the “ancient” Romans conquered the city it was already 6000 years old.

Further, this is about the 900th time the city has been destroyed by fighting.   The city has been conquered by Alexander the Great, the Romans, the Crusaders, the Mongols, the Ottomans, and the British.  Also, you could argue that conflict with Israel is nothing new.  In 900 B.C. the city of Damascus won a major battle that stopped the original Israelites from expanding.

Bottom Line: America is really young.  Damascus is about 50 times older than San Francsico.

THERE IS A CIVIL WAR RAGING IN SYRIA; YOU NEED TO AT LEAST KNOW THE BASICS

Sarah,

There is a civil war raging in Syria right now.  It's really complicated, but here is a very basic breakdown of why people are killing each other.  I also added where America stands in all of this.

Breakdown:

Syria is the Muslim country that lies directly north of Israel.(Israel conquered some land from them in 1967)  Here is the basic situation.  President Assad (more or less a dictator) is an Alawite.  Alawites are Shia Muslims and make up about 10% of the Syrian population. The majority of the population is Sunni Muslim.  During the cold war, Russia backed the Assad family and Syria acted as a counterweight to American interests in Israel.  Iran also supports the Assad family because Iran is the main Shia Muslim country and they want control to stay in the hands of Shia Muslims.  Now there is revolution against Assad which started as a pro-democracy movement but is increasingly looking like the 75% Sunni population rebelling against the minority Shia Muslims who control the country.  Other Sunni Muslim nations (Turkey and Saudi Arabia) are cautiously aligning themselves with the rebels, but thus far there has been no overt intervention.

This puts the United States in an awkward position.  Its first impulse might be to support the rebels because they are “pro democracy” and we are enemies with Russia and Iran.  However, it is much more complicated than that.  First, Al Qaeda is a Sunni sect which in addition to hating Israel and America also hates Shia Muslims.  Thus, Al Qaeda is now on the side of the Sunni rebels and Al-Qaeda fighters are pouring into the country.  It may be tough for America to justify aligning with Al Qaeda in any capacity.  Further, beyond Al-Qaeda, there are many other rebel groups that remain unidentified.  It is possible that some of them are the same groups that supply arms to Palestinian militants.  Third, the same Sunni- Shia split that is present in Syria is also present in Iraq and Lebanon, so there is a risk the conflict can spread even deeper.  Iraq is barely controlling violence between Sunni and Shia populations as it is and this violence may get even more out of hand.

Beyond practical concerns, the US also faces some diplomatic hurdles to intervention.  For the United Nations to act, the Security Council (Russia, China, Britain, France, and America) have to agree to use force.  Russia is vetoing intervention because of its alliance with Syria and China usually vetoes intervention because it doesn't want any precedent for other countries intervening in its affairs.  Democrats find this to be a legitimate barrier to intervention and think that we shouldn't intervene anyway.  Republicans think that waiting for UN support is stupid and the United States should do what they need to.  It is unclear if Republicans actually want to intervene but they definitely want everyone to know that we don't need to UN.

Oh and if you are wondering, the main difference between Shia and Sunni Muslims is that around 700 AD there was a split between Muslims as to who was the rightful successor of Muhammad (the prophet).  Most everything else between the two sects is the same.

Bottom line: This conflict is potentially explosive.