Wednesday, August 15, 2012

THE SYRIAN CIVIL WAR IS SERIOUSLY OUT OF CONTROL; HERE IS AN UPDATE ON HOW THE REBELS AND THE GOVERNMENT ARE FARING:

Sarah,

The Syrian Civil War is seriously out of control; you need an update.  Last week I posted background information about the Syrian Civil War.  If you missed that post, be sure to read it before continuing with this article; it contains necessary information.

The Syrian Civil War is rapidly escalating and the rebels are gaining the advantage.  This post breaks down the current strengths and weaknesses of the government (ruled by Assad) and the rebels.


Scope of the War:

The war has spread to every corner of the country.  All of Syria’s largest cities are battle zones; in Syria’s third largest city (Homs), more than two thirds of the population has fled.  The ranks of the rebels are growing but they are still outnumbered and outgunned.  Most of the battles have played out in the following fashion:

1. The government identifies an area under rebel control

2. The government uses its Russian-made planes, helicopters, and artillery to bomb the area

3. If the rebel’s flee, the government enters the area, loots the area, and kills anyone suspected of aligning with the rebels. (there are countless reports of looting and rape)

4. If the rebels stay, there is either a street battle or a stalemate.  Recently, the government has been reluctant to enter cities and actually fight.  This is because the rebels only possess small arms and house to house fighting negates the government’s advantage in heavy weaponry and aircraft.  Thus, there is currently a stalemate in some of the cities because bombing is not flushing out the rebels and the government will not enter into a battle on small and narrow streets.

The Rebels:

Support: 

Rebel forces are now estimated to have around 50,000 fighters.  The rebel’s main advantage is a growing number of defections from the government.  Many of the government’s officers are Sunni Muslim and are defecting because the war is increasingly seen as a war between the Shia Muslim government and Sunni Muslim rebels.  Each defection adds experience, organization, and sometimes weaponry to the rebel force.

There is a concern however that rebel occupation of the cities is upsetting civilians. (if the rebels enter your neighborhood it will probably be bombed)  This is especially true among Syria’s Christian and Kurdish minorities who fear extremists within the ranks of the Sunni Muslim rebels.(Al Qaeda is reported to be among those fighting Assad)

Additionally, the rebels have not enjoyed strong international support and they lack supplies.  Rebel groups operating near smuggling routes on the Turkish and Lebanese borders are much better supplied than those in the interior of the country.  For the most part, the rebels have armed themselves by buying guns from local black market dealers or government defectors.  This strategy is getting expensive; since the beginning of the war, the price of an AK-47 has quintupled and is now around $1,500. 

Organization:

Thanks to growing ranks and defections by government officers, rebel attacks are growing more sophisticated.  Earlier in the war, most attacks were small hit and run operations.  Now the rebels are holding cities and kidnapping government officials.  Government casualties have spiked dramatically during the month of July.  On July 15th, the rebels successfully bombed a meeting of Assad’s national security council and killed Assad’s defense minister. 

Although growing ranks are helpful, the diversity within rebel ranks is a challenge.  The rebels have fighters from literally everywhere because foreign fighters have poured into the country to take up the cause.  Further, most domestic rebel units originated locally- this means they are often fighting for the interests of their specific region.  Communication between these disparate factions has been difficult.

The Government:

Support:

The Syrian Army is thought to have around 300,000 soldiers.  The government’s main advantages are their weaponry and international support from their two allies; Russia and Iran.

Russia is supplying Syria with advanced weaponry that the rebels cannot match.  Further, Russia is using its clout to block attempts by the United Nations to impose sanctions or assemble a force for intervention. (China is also blocking these resolutions)  Lastly, Russian banks are circumventing international embargos of Syria and continuing to buy Syria’s oil.  These transactions are one of the Syrian government’s main sources of revenue. 

Although Russia has thus far remained loyal, they may reconsider their position if a rebel victory seems assured.  If the Syrian government resorts to using chemical weapons (which is totally within the realm of possibilities) it may be too difficult for Russia to justify their support.

Iran, Syria’s other ally, is much more reliable.  Iran will likely fight with Assad until the end and has been very vocal in its support.  Iran has a much greater interest in the region and needs to keep Syria within its influence and away from America’s.  Iran gives less material aid than Russia, but is thought to be training government militias and possibly providing manpower.

Syria’s main weaknesses are the high rate of defections within its ranks and a lack of popular support.  Last week, the Prime Minister of the Syria defected and declared that he was “a soldier on the path of righteousness” in support of the rebels.  Supposedly there are jails full of ex-army officers who were imprisoned on suspicion of helping the rebels.  Further, as refugees scatter throughout Syria, they share stories of the government’s brutality and influence more and more Syrians to turn against Assad.  Groups that were initially neutral are now conceding that Assad’s government has got to go.

What’s Happening This Very Second:

As you read this post, battles are raging in Aleppo and Damascus.(both cities have over two million people)  Government planes are firing missiles into apartment buildings, smugglers are crossing land-mined borders, families are desperately trying to flee to neighboring countries, and seventeen year old rebel soldiers are firing antique AK-47’s at Russian-made tanks.

Bottom line: The situation in Syria is rapidly evolving.  Anything could happen in the next couple weeks.  I’ll keep you posted.

8 comments:

  1. What do you think about the reports that Iran is providing manpower? I'm a bit skeptical because that seems like the sort of overt move that could help rally American support for a war or strikes against Iran.

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    1. My second comment! Thanks for the question! I agree that America is quicker to jump to conclusions and may exaggerate Iran’s presence in Syria, but I don’t believe that claims of Iranian involvement are completely false. The Syrian rebels certainly think that Iran has sent men into the Syria. I think it’s just a question of how much actual involvement has occurred and that is pretty impossible to know.

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    2. Also, Iran has definitely shipped guns. A number of shipments have been intercepted by Turkey on the border.

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    3. I think that Iran is definitely providing arms at the very least, if not even manpower. Is that to say that I am swayed by American warhawks attempting to garner my support? Absolutely not. But the regime in Syria is a longtime ally of the Assad regime, it would be consistent with their ties to provide manpower to dispel the movement.

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  2. "the rebels have not enjoyed strong international support and they lack supplies"


    You are kidding right? You do not appear to be aware of the article published in the New York Times earlier this year. I have posted the opening paragraph to give you something to think about. Please note who the NYT is quoting.

    C.I.A. Said to Aid in Steering Arms to Syrian Opposition
    By ERIC SCHMITT

    Published: June 21, 2012

    WASHINGTON — A small number of C.I.A. officers are operating secretly in southern Turkey, helping allies decide which Syrian opposition fighters across the border will receive arms to fight the Syrian government, according to American officials and Arab intelligence officers.

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  3. What are your sources and who is your paymaster?

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    1. Cameron, I appreciate the feedback. By strong international support I was referring to the fact that no Western Government has said “we will give you guns”. Western governments may be operating covertly and on a small scale, but that pales in comparison to Russia selling billions of dollar in arms to the Syrian government. Further, they lack supplies when compared to their opponents. They have no tanks, no planes, and no helicopters.

      Unfortunately, no one pays me. My sources are really boring: newspapers, magazines, and websites. I wish I had a better story for you.

      As these are summaries of the news- some details will inevitably be lost. I only hope that my generalizations do not mislead. Comments like yours only help to clarify and I appreciate them.

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  4. Newspapes, magazines and websites come in all hues of political outlook. Without clear identification of your sources, it is impossible for your readers to ditermine what, if any, bias you may be passing on. As such, my original question remains. What are your sources?

    "no Western Government has said “we will give you guns”"

    This strikes me as being astonishingly nieve. You appear to expect the western backers of the so-called FSA, to voluntarily announce to the world, "Yes, we are arming a terrorist insurgencey in order to bring down the government of an independent soveriegn nation. Oh....wait. Wasn't that exactly what the NYT reported US officials as admitting to earlier this year?

    You might care to look at last Friday's issue of "Foreign Policy", published by the New York Council on Foreign Relations. In a article entitled, "Two Cheers for Syrian Islamists", the author opens the piece by stating;

    "Sunni Islamists are leading the fight against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and are on track to become the paramount political force in Damascus after he's gone."

    "...Moreover, enormous financial resources are pouring in from the Arab-Islamic world to promote explicitly Islamist resistance to Assad's Alawite-dominated, Iranian-backed regime".

    "...For the foreseeable future, however, Iran constitutes a far greater and more immediate threat to U.S. national interests. Whatever misfortunes Sunni Islamists may visit upon the Syrian people, any government they form will be strategically preferable to the Assad regime, for three reasons: A new government in Damascus will find continuing the alliance with Tehran unthinkable, it won't have to distract Syrians from its minority status with foreign policy adventurism like the ancien régime, and it will be flush with petrodollars from Arab Gulf states (relatively) friendly to Washington".

    "...So long as Syrian jihadis are committed to fighting Iran and its Arab proxies, we should quietly root for them -- while keeping our distance from a conflict that is going to get very ugly before the smoke clears. There will be plenty of time to tame the beast after Iran's regional hegemonic ambitions have gone down in flames".

    (http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/08/23/two_cheers_for_syrian_islamists?page=0,1)

    As I hope these statements show, the overall aim of the Americans is to realigning Iraq to US interests. In order to understand how the American hope to do this by baking those who they have been fighing in Afghanistan and Iraq, I would suggest you start with Seymour Hersh's 2007 article in the New Yorker, entitled "The Redirection".

    (http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2007/03/05/070305fa_fact_hersh?currentPage=all)

    You may also want to read up on British Foreign Office official Bernard Lewis, who called for the destruction of the modern secular state of Turkey in the early 1960's, and for the balkanisation of the middle east in the 1970's. The ultimate prise of such action, would again be the destruction of Iran.

    I hope that you find these new line of research helpfull in developing your understanding what is happening in Syria today, and indeed across much of the Muslim world.

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