PUTIN’S LATEST MOVE:

Sarah,

This week, Putin supporters expelled an opposition leader named Gennady Gudkov from Parliament.  Although Gudkov supported Putin in the past, he had recently begun to criticize corruption and inefficiency within Putin’s United Russia party.  The official charge against Gudkov was “conducting business while in office” but observers could not help but notice that the expulsion occurred on the eve of a large anti-Putin protest.  This is important because lawmakers have a degree of immunity and the expulsion leaves Gudkov vulnerable to prosecution for any connection to the protests.

So let’s add up Putin’s latest moves:

-expulsion of Gudkov from Parliament

-imprisonment of other opposition leaders

-imprisonment of a female punk band named Pussy Riot for singing a song in a church

-passage of new laws that dramatically increase fines for protesting

-passage of a law criminalizing libel

-passage of laws that increase censorship of the internet

Bottom line: New acts of repression are happening weekly.  Russia is heading in the wrong direction.

THE SYRIAN CIVIL WAR IS SERIOUSLY OUT OF CONTROL; HERE IS AN UPDATE ON HOW THE REBELS AND THE GOVERNMENT ARE FARING:

Sarah,

The Syrian Civil War is seriously out of control; you need an update.  Last week I posted background information about the Syrian Civil War.  If you missed that post, be sure to read it before continuing with this article; it contains necessary information.

The Syrian Civil War is rapidly escalating and the rebels are gaining the advantage.  This post breaks down the current strengths and weaknesses of the government (ruled by Assad) and the rebels.

Scope of the War:

The war has spread to every corner of the country.  All of Syria’s largest cities are battle zones; in Syria’s third largest city (Homs), more than two thirds of the population has fled.  The ranks of the rebels are growing but they are still outnumbered and outgunned.  Most of the battles have played out in the following fashion:

1. The government identifies an area under rebel control

2. The government uses its Russian-made planes, helicopters, and artillery to bomb the area

3. If the rebel’s flee, the government enters the area, loots the area, and kills anyone suspected of aligning with the rebels. (there are countless reports of looting and rape)

4. If the rebels stay, there is either a street battle or a stalemate.  Recently, the government has been reluctant to enter cities and actually fight.  This is because the rebels only possess small arms and house to house fighting negates the government’s advantage in heavy weaponry and aircraft.  Thus, there is currently a stalemate in some of the cities because bombing is not flushing out the rebels and the government will not enter into a battle on small and narrow streets.

The Rebels:

Support: 

Rebel forces are now estimated to have around 50,000 fighters.  The rebel’s main advantage is a growing number of defections from the government.  Many of the government’s officers are Sunni Muslim and are defecting because the war is increasingly seen as a war between the Shia Muslim government and Sunni Muslim rebels.  Each defection adds experience, organization, and sometimes weaponry to the rebel force.

There is a concern however that rebel occupation of the cities is upsetting civilians. (if the rebels enter your neighborhood it will probably be bombed)  This is especially true among Syria’s Christian and Kurdish minorities who fear extremists within the ranks of the Sunni Muslim rebels.(Al Qaeda is reported to be among those fighting Assad)

Additionally, the rebels have not enjoyed strong international support and they lack supplies.  Rebel groups operating near smuggling routes on the Turkish and Lebanese borders are much better supplied than those in the interior of the country.  For the most part, the rebels have armed themselves by buying guns from local black market dealers or government defectors.  This strategy is getting expensive; since the beginning of the war, the price of an AK-47 has quintupled and is now around $1,500. 

Organization:

Thanks to growing ranks and defections by government officers, rebel attacks are growing more sophisticated.  Earlier in the war, most attacks were small hit and run operations.  Now the rebels are holding cities and kidnapping government officials.  Government casualties have spiked dramatically during the month of July.  On July 15^th, the rebels successfully bombed a meeting of Assad’s national security council and killed Assad’s defense minister. 

Although growing ranks are helpful, the diversity within rebel ranks is a challenge.  The rebels have fighters from literally everywhere because foreign fighters have poured into the country to take up the cause.  Further, most domestic rebel units originated locally- this means they are often fighting for the interests of their specific region.  Communication between these disparate factions has been difficult.

The Government:

Support:

The Syrian Army is thought to have around 300,000 soldiers.  The government’s main advantages are their weaponry and international support from their two allies; Russia and Iran.

Russia is supplying Syria with advanced weaponry that the rebels cannot match.  Further, Russia is using its clout to block attempts by the United Nations to impose sanctions or assemble a force for intervention. (China is also blocking these resolutions)  Lastly, Russian banks are circumventing international embargos of Syria and continuing to buy Syria’s oil.  These transactions are one of the Syrian government’s main sources of revenue. 

Although Russia has thus far remained loyal, they may reconsider their position if a rebel victory seems assured.  If the Syrian government resorts to using chemical weapons (which is totally within the realm of possibilities) it may be too difficult for Russia to justify their support.

Iran, Syria’s other ally, is much more reliable.  Iran will likely fight with Assad until the end and has been very vocal in its support.  Iran has a much greater interest in the region and needs to keep Syria within its influence and away from America’s.  Iran gives less material aid than Russia, but is thought to be training government militias and possibly providing manpower.

Syria’s main weaknesses are the high rate of defections within its ranks and a lack of popular support.  Last week, the Prime Minister of the Syria defected and declared that he was “a soldier on the path of righteousness” in support of the rebels.  Supposedly there are jails full of ex-army officers who were imprisoned on suspicion of helping the rebels.  Further, as refugees scatter throughout Syria, they share stories of the government’s brutality and influence more and more Syrians to turn against Assad.  Groups that were initially neutral are now conceding that Assad’s government has got to go.

What’s Happening This Very Second:

As you read this post, battles are raging in Aleppo and Damascus.(both cities have over two million people)  Government planes are firing missiles into apartment buildings, smugglers are crossing land-mined borders, families are desperately trying to flee to neighboring countries, and seventeen year old rebel soldiers are firing antique AK-47’s at Russian-made tanks.

Bottom line: The situation in Syria is rapidly evolving.  Anything could happen in the next couple weeks.  I’ll keep you posted.

THE BRICS ARE SLOWING DOWN:

Sarah,

Several years ago some economist came up with the term “BRIC” to use as shorthand when referring to Brazil, Russia, India, and China.  These countries are grouped together because they are huge and have experienced rapid economic growth over the last decade.  Now, all except Russia are witnessing an economic slowdown- China’s growth is the lowest in three years, India’s growth is the lowest in 7 years, and Brazil’s growth has dropped to zero.  Here’s an extremely oversimplified summary of why:

1.  Economic growth in China and India relies heavily on manufacturing.  The primary markets for these manufactured goods are Europe and America.  Europe is in a never-ending financial crisis and America’s economy is not growing.  Thus, demand for China and India’s goods has been weak.

2.  Relatedly, investment from European and American investors fuels growth in BRIC countries.  Since Europe is being forced to bailout its own economies, there is less money to invest in developing countries.

3.  China and India rely on manufacturing and Russia and Brazil rely on exporting commodities.  Commodities are essentially raw materials- metals, crops, wood, and oil.  When production at Chinese and Indian factories slowed down- so did the demand for these raw materials.  For example, Brazil has exported iron to China for the last decade.  Currently, a drop in demand for iron has led to a drop in Brazilian exports of iron to China.

4.  When economies grow, the wages of workers usually rise.  If a factory has to pay its workers more, it is less competitive globally.  For example, rising wages in China have made Mexican factories more competitive.  Although Chinese workers still earn less than Mexican workers, Mexico’s proximity to the United States allows for lower transportation costs.  When you even out the costs, Mexico may end up with the cheaper product in the American market.

4.  There is also a rash of country-specific problems.  For example, India cannot seem to maintain quality infrastructure.  Infrastructure in this context means roads, railroads, and electricity.  When companies cannot rely on the roads or power supply of a country, they are reluctant to build new factories.

5. I mentioned Russia is still growing.  This is because Russia’s main exports are oil and gas.  Demand for oil and gas has remained steady.  If demand for energy drops Russia’s economy will also suffer.

RUSSIA IS ABOUT TO PASS SOME REALLY AGGRESSIVE LAWS

Sarah,

Last week I wrote you about Putin's domination of Russian politics.  Let's get more specific.

Now that Putin is starting his third term, he is beginning to pass laws that would serve to protect his authority.  The Duma (Russia’s congress) is set to pass the following pieces of legislation:

- A law that raises the fine for unsanctioned protesting to as much as $9,300

-A law that forces any NGO (a non-governmental organization such as a charity or human rights group) to declare itself a “foreign agent” and submit extensive financial paperwork

-A law that criminalizes libel and allows for enormous fines

-A law that creates a “blacklist” of websites for illegal websites.  Any website appearing on the blacklist will be blocked.  The legislators claim it is for protection of children, but the law is not very well defined.

Further, the laws are very vague.  This gives the people enforcing the laws (Putin’s government) broad discretion as to who they will prosecute.

Many analysts believe Putin is going forward with these laws because using the courts is more effective that using pure force to tackle opposition.

The latest polls put support for Putin around 45%.

PUTIN HAS BEEN DOMINATING RUSSIAN POLITICS FOR OVER TWELVE YEARS NOW

Sarah,

Vladimir Putin may be the most interesting world leader in office today.  He has dominated Russian politics since 2000 and has recently won Russia’s presidential election.  Here’s why:

The Crisis Of The 1990’s:

During the 1990’s, Russia endured a chaotic transition from communism (in which the state owns everything) to “liberal democracy”.  Connected government insiders bought all of Russia’s most valuable assets for bargain rates and many fled the country with their newly acquired wealth.  The value of Russia’s economy fell by 50% and lawlessness reigned.  While the economy deteriorated, Chechnya, a Russia province, declared independence.

Enter Putin:

In 1999, Russian president Boris Yeltsin resigned and left his post to his prime minister, Vladimir Putin.  Putin then won the presidential election in 2000 and violently suppressed the revolt in Chechnya.  The economy grew for eight straight years and Putin’s popularity exploded as relative stability returned to Russia.

How Did He Do It?

Putin basically struck a deal with a collection of oligarchs who had become fabulously wealthy during Russia’s chaotic transition.  With their support, he was able to reform Russia’s legal code, military, and police force.  Lastly, because Russia is rich in oil and gas, surging energy prices buoyed the Russian economy throughout most of his first term.

Increasing Authoritarianism:

Along with the corruption inherent in catering to the country’s elite, Putin showed a greater authoritarian streak in during his second presidential term.(2004 to 2008)  First, Putin criminally prosecuted the wealthiest man in Russia for tax evasion; a move thought to be punishment for the man’s financial support of Putin’s political rivals.  Second, Putin tightened his control over the Russian media.

The Medvedev Switch:

Putin’s third consecutive term was barred by term limits.  Accordingly he nominated his prime minister, Dmitry Medvedev, as president and reserved the role of prime minister for himself.  Towards the end of Medvedev’s term as president, he proposed that Putin stand for president again and Putin accepted.

The Last Election:

Putin’s reelection in 2012 did not go as smoothly as his previous triumphs.  By this point, it was glaringly obvious Putin intended to stay in power indefinitely.  Protests by both liberals and communists erupted in Moscow and Putin’s political party, United Russia, had an unusually poor showing in the parliamentary elections preceding his election.

It wasn’t enough.  Putin, with firm control over the media, responded by staging his own pro-Putin rallies to counter those of the opposition.  He retained strong support in Russia’s countryside and was able to rely on government workers under his employ.  Lastly, many of the opposing candidates may have been Putin supporters themselves, acting to promote the charade of democracy.  As a result, Putin won the election with 63% of the vote. 

Bottom Line: The West gets excited when it sees anti-Putin protests, but it is doubtful he is going anywhere soon.  By the end of his next term, Putin will have effectively ruled Russia for 16 years.