Posts
The Syrian Civil War is seriously
out of control; you need an update. Last
week I posted background information about the Syrian Civil War. If you missed that post, be sure to read it
before continuing with this article; it contains necessary information.
The Syrian Civil War is rapidly
escalating and the rebels are gaining the advantage. This post breaks down the current strengths
and weaknesses of the government (ruled by Assad) and the rebels.
Scope of the War:
The war has spread to every
corner of the country. All of Syria’s
largest cities are battle zones; in Syria’s third largest city (Homs), more
than two thirds of the population has fled.
The ranks of the rebels are growing but they are still outnumbered and
outgunned. Most of the battles have played
out in the following fashion:
1. The government identifies an
area under rebel control
2. The government uses its
Russian-made planes, helicopters, and artillery to bomb the area
3. If the rebel’s flee, the
government enters the area, loots the area, and kills anyone suspected of
aligning with the rebels. (there are countless reports of looting and rape)
4. If the rebels stay, there is
either a street battle or a stalemate.
Recently, the government has been reluctant to enter cities and actually
fight. This is because the rebels only possess
small arms and house to house fighting negates the government’s advantage in
heavy weaponry and aircraft. Thus, there
is currently a stalemate in some of the cities because bombing is not flushing
out the rebels and the government will not enter into a battle on small and
narrow streets.
The Rebels:
Support:
Rebel forces are now estimated to
have around 50,000 fighters. The rebel’s
main advantage is a growing number of defections from the government. Many of the government’s officers are Sunni
Muslim and are defecting because the war is increasingly seen as a war between
the Shia Muslim government and Sunni Muslim rebels. Each defection adds experience, organization,
and sometimes weaponry to the rebel force.
There is a concern however that
rebel occupation of the cities is upsetting civilians. (if the rebels enter
your neighborhood it will probably be bombed)
This is especially true among Syria’s Christian and Kurdish minorities
who fear extremists within the ranks of the Sunni Muslim rebels.(Al Qaeda is
reported to be among those fighting Assad)
Additionally, the rebels have not
enjoyed strong international support and they lack supplies. Rebel groups operating near smuggling routes
on the Turkish and Lebanese borders are much better supplied than those in the
interior of the country. For the most
part, the rebels have armed themselves by buying guns from local black market
dealers or government defectors. This
strategy is getting expensive; since the beginning of the war, the price of an
AK-47 has quintupled and is now around $1,500.
Organization:
Thanks to growing ranks and
defections by government officers, rebel attacks are growing more
sophisticated. Earlier in the war, most
attacks were small hit and run operations.
Now the rebels are holding cities and kidnapping government officials. Government casualties have spiked dramatically
during the month of July. On July 15th,
the rebels successfully bombed a meeting of Assad’s national security council
and killed Assad’s defense minister.
Although growing ranks are
helpful, the diversity within rebel ranks is a challenge. The rebels have fighters from literally
everywhere because foreign fighters have poured into the country to take up the
cause. Further, most domestic rebel
units originated locally- this means they are often fighting for the interests
of their specific region. Communication
between these disparate factions has been difficult.
The Government:
Support:
The Syrian Army is thought to
have around 300,000 soldiers. The
government’s main advantages are their weaponry and international support from
their two allies; Russia and Iran.
Russia is supplying Syria with
advanced weaponry that the rebels cannot match.
Further, Russia is using its clout to block attempts by the United
Nations to impose sanctions or assemble a force for intervention. (China is
also blocking these resolutions) Lastly,
Russian banks are circumventing international embargos of Syria and continuing
to buy Syria’s oil. These transactions
are one of the Syrian government’s main sources of revenue.
Although Russia has thus far
remained loyal, they may reconsider their position if a rebel victory seems
assured. If the Syrian government
resorts to using chemical weapons (which is totally within the realm of
possibilities) it may be too difficult for Russia to justify their support.
Iran, Syria’s other ally, is much
more reliable. Iran will likely fight
with Assad until the end and has been very vocal in its support. Iran has a much greater interest in the
region and needs to keep Syria within its influence and away from America’s. Iran gives less material aid than Russia, but
is thought to be training government militias and possibly providing manpower.
Syria’s main weaknesses are the
high rate of defections within its ranks and a lack of popular support. Last week, the Prime Minister of the Syria
defected and declared that he was “a soldier on the path of righteousness” in
support of the rebels. Supposedly there
are jails full of ex-army officers who were imprisoned on suspicion of helping
the rebels. Further, as refugees scatter
throughout Syria, they share stories of the government’s brutality and influence
more and more Syrians to turn against Assad.
Groups that were initially neutral are now conceding that Assad’s
government has got to go.
What’s Happening This Very Second:
As you read this post, battles
are raging in Aleppo and Damascus.(both cities have over two million people) Government planes are firing missiles into
apartment buildings, smugglers are crossing land-mined borders, families are
desperately trying to flee to neighboring countries, and seventeen year old
rebel soldiers are firing antique AK-47’s at Russian-made tanks.
Bottom line: The situation in
Syria is rapidly evolving. Anything could
happen in the next couple weeks. I’ll
keep you posted.
