THE NAVIES OF CHINA AND THE PHILIPPINES FACE OFF OVER SOME ROCKS IN THE OCEAN; AMERICA WANTS IN

Sarah,

Last week, I posted about some problems facing China.  I forgot to add an interesting one: the fact China is bickering with every single one of its neighbors over territorial rights to the South China Sea.  China claims nearly all of it.(see the map below)  This really annoys the countries of Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, Taiwan, Singapore, and the Philippines because China is laying claim to islands and waters directly off their coastlines.

China’s recent spat with the Philippines exemplifies the larger dispute.  Here is what’s happened:

The Scarborough Shoal:

China and the Philippines are fighting over a shoal that is located 123 miles off the coast of the Philippines.  A shoal is a patch of shallow water which is created when a reef lies just below the surface of the ocean.  Shoals are great for fishing because fish live in reefs and the shallow water provides fishing vessels with calm water.

China claims they own the shoal because they discovered it and have been fishing there forever.(sometimes it helps to be an old country- China is over 2,000 years old)  The Philippines claim they own it because international law states that all ocean within 200 miles of a country’s coast belongs to that country. (the shoal is well within this buffer zone)  Both claims have at least some merit.

How Did the Drama Start?

Earlier this year, the Philippine Navy was patrolling the reef and attempted to arrest a Chinese fishing boat for illegal fishing.  Upon hearing the news, a couple of enormous Chinese warships, that just happened to be in the region, intervened and prevented the arrest.  Despite subsequent agreements about a fishing ban, the Chinese Navy is still there.  Today there are about 30 Chinese ships patrolling the area.  When Philippine fishing boats (or anyone other than the Chinese) enter the shoal, they are chased out.

Enter America:

America cried foul and immediately sent their navy to the region.  Because the Philippine Navy wouldn’t stand a chance against the Chinese Navy, the Americans are conducting drills with the Philippine Navy and providing them with training.  This development is part of a larger trend of South-East Asian countries looking the America for protection against China’s rapidly expanding military.

China hates this development.

Instead of directly threatening China, America has called for a “multilateral solution”.  This basically means that America wants any negotiation about the South China Sea to happen between a whole collection of Asian countries and China as opposed to China and the Philippines by themselves.  America, (and other Asian countries) thinks this will put smaller Asian countries in better bargaining position.

China refuses to negotiate claims to the South China Sea multilaterally and wishes to discuss each dispute individually. (what chance does the tiny country of Brunei have if it goes up against China by itself?)

Failure at the ASEAN Summit:

Recently, an annual summit was held that involved all of the South-East Asian countries.  Cambodia hosted and many of the smaller Asian countries were optimistic they could create standard for resolving territorial disputes.  After days of political wrangling, no standard was adopted.  This was a major victory for China because China did not want to discuss territorial issues while all of its adversaries were in the same room at the same time.  The Philippines and other aggrieved Asian nations accused Cambodia of manipulating the meeting on China’s behalf.  Cambodian manipulation is probable because Cambodia is in China’s pocket.

What are the Consequences?

For now, an actual fight is not likely, but the standoff will not be ending soon. 

America is nervous about getting embroiled in a conflict but is happy to see Asian countries flocking to its side.

China is annoyed by America’s presence but is happy for a chance to show off its growing navy.

The Philippines are caught in the middle.  Most Filipino’s are upset about China but many are still hesitant to embrace American influence. 

As is often the case in geopolitical disputes, the real loser is the little guy.  Filipino farmers rely heavily on agricultural exports to China.  Since the dispute began, China has stopped buying Filipino bananas.  This is really hurting the agricultural sector of the Philippines.

Bottom line: China is becoming more and more aggressive.  This is concerning, but at least its preventing them from allying with their neighbors.